Russia’s grievances can’t be ignored in Ukraine peace deal

Recent developments in the US presidential campaign have pushed the question of how to resolve the war in Ukraine war up the agenda. With a Republican presidential victory looking increasingly likely, reports suggest Donald Trump would quickly demand that Ukraine enter peace talks should he win November’s election.

His choice of running-mate – the outspoken opponent of US military assistance to Ukraine, JD Vance – has further increased the likelihood of this.

A recent poll in Ukraine showed 44% of Ukrainians want formal peace talks with Russia to begin, up from 23% in May 2023. But what would a just and stable long-term peace look like? Ukraine has set out its demands, including full withdrawal of Russian troops and the creation of a tribunal to prosecute Russian war criminals.

These are eminently reasonable. But it is also important to understand Russian grievances. This is not to excuse aggression – but Russia started the war, so understanding its reasoning is important to grasp why it occurred and how eventually to end it.

The Kremlin set out its complaints in a 2021 essay purportedly written by Vladimir Putin: On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians. If we cut through its dubious historical claims, the remaining grievances are largely traditional geopolitical issues about disputed territory, borders and minorities. These local, regional and national-scale issues are routinely encountered after the break-up of multi-ethnic empires such as the Soviet Union.

Putin’s essay refers to “Ukrainian neo-Nazis,” and he has repeatedly said that the “de-Nazification” of Ukraine is a goal of the invasion. The suggestion that Ukraine is overrun by fascists is nonsense. But government-mandated celebrations of Ukrainian