Pyongyang-Tokyo talks a two-edged sword

February 22, 2024

SEOUL – North Korea and Japan are not hiding signs that they recently had behind-the-scenes talks on a possible summit. While the so-called new Cold War structure is being discussed and worries about the potential war breaking are spreading, interest is increasing rapidly in whether the contact between North Korea and Japan could be a critical event that can change the dynamics of Northeast Asia.

It remains to be seen whether the two parties can hold a summit, as there are many obstacles. The most significant variable is North Korea’s insistence that the nuclear and missile issues and the Japanese abduction issue be ruled out. Prime Minister Kishida can retain the event’s meaning when discussing those issues.

On the contrary, Chairman Kim Jong-un will feel more comfortable not holding a meeting if the two issues are on the agenda. However, the most crucial variable in diplomatic negotiations is not the environment but the national necessity or the will of the supreme leader. If a leader has a strong will, they will overcome obstacles.

It is possible to solve the problem by creating a scenario that does not impose a political burden on either side by bringing up sensitive issues but not reaching a specific agreement. Kishida will be satisfied if he can claim that he raised essential issues with Kim while initiating a structural change in the relations with North Korea. Suppose the benefits of the summit with Japan are excellent and clear. In that case, Kim can also take a tactical card in which he regards the meeting as an opportunity to reaffirm his position on crucial issues.

If the summit is held, the Pyongyang-Tokyo contact will be considered a diplomatic victory for Kishida. Even if the summit does