Putin’s high-risk North Korea gambit

The Russian president’s trip to North Korea alters global calculations, spreading instability worldwide. Even China may now be interested in distancing itself from him.

Shortly after establishing the People’s Republic of China (PRC) on October 1, 1949, China entered one of its most controversial historical periods. PRC leader Mao Zedong planned to attack Taiwan, where Chiang Kai-shek’s remnant nationalist forces (Kuomintang or KMT) had escaped. Distrusting Mao, possibly due to his years of talks with the Americans, Stalin pushed Mao to intervene in the Korean War in the late 1950s. Chinese troops fought the Americans, drove them back, and created the conditions for a stalemate and truce that holds to this day.

Chinese intervention, however, prompted the US to deploy its fleet in the Taiwan Strait, making the “liberation of Taiwan” impossible and turning it into the most annoying thorn in Beijing’s foreign policy ever since.

Many historians still debate why Mao moved troops to Korea, and many theories exist. But undoubtedly, the Russians were instrumental in that decision. Stalin distrusted Mao but provided Soviet equipment and possibly even Soviet troops to help the Communists defeat the KMT in 1949. Stalin wanted to drive a wedge between Mao and the US to ensure North Korea’s survival. Mao gave up on Taiwan to secure Soviet support during a critical moment for China and received the troublesome North Korea instead.

In the early 2000s, when ties with the US were uncertain, but many in Beijing still sought an avenue forward with Washington, the influential Chinese journal Strategy and Management floated the idea that Chinese troops might help push North Korea towards real peace talks. In return, the US could grant better