Philippines’ South China Sea gambit is high on effort, low on results

But despite these efforts, tangible gains remain elusive. Compared to Vietnam and Malaysia, the Philippines appears to be lagging behind in both resource exploitation and physical control of disputed areas.

Why have Vietnam and Malaysia been able to assert their maritime rights while maintaining stable diplomatic relations with China, yet the Philippines has had constant friction with Beijing, and their relations have continued to deteriorate?

However, recent developments suggest that Manila may be moving towards a more deterrence-based strategy. There are concerns that the expansion of the Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement between Manila and Washington could further militarise the region, with potentially unforeseen consequences.

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Philippines races to upgrade its degrading military in the face of maritime disputes

Third, the Philippines’ attempt to garner international support to pressure China into backing off may well backfire, as such a strategy could fuel Chinese nationalism and hinder constructive dialogue and diplomatic solutions.

Given the importance of saving face in Chinese diplomacy, it is implausible that China would back down as a result of any accusations, regardless of their veracity. The Chinese believe respect begets respect, and see tit-for-tat diplomacy as fair play. Yet, the Philippines does not seem to understand this logic of Chinese diplomacy.

Finally, Manila’s approach to the South China Sea dispute is shaped not only by external factors but also by complex internal dynamics. The country’s political landscape is characterised by political dynasties, competing factions and, according to some critics, widespread corruption. These internal factors may significantly shape the government’s approach