Would Trump go soft on the South China Sea?

The South China Sea (SCS) and Taiwan Strait have become focal points of geopolitical tension in the Asia-Pacific region due to conflicting territorial claims and strategic interests.

Amidst this backdrop, the United States has assumed a crucial role in preserving stability and the balance of power, especially considering China’s increasingly assertive actions.

However, with the uncertainties surrounding a potential second term of former president Donald Trump, crucial questions loom over the future direction of US policy in the region.

Trump’s previous administration pursued a strategy of strategic engagement and deterrence to counter China’s aggressive behavior, including freedom of navigation operations and military presence in the SCS.

Yet, his approach has also been characterized by unpredictability and transactional diplomacy, raising concerns about the consistency and effectiveness of US policy.

As the political landscape evolves, stakeholders are closely monitoring the trajectory of US involvement in the Asia-Pacific, recognizing its significant implications for regional stability and security.

China’s assertive actions in the SCS have triggered widespread concern among neighboring countries and the international community. Despite a 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in favor of the Philippines and invalidating China’s expansive territorial claims in the region, Beijing persists in asserting sovereignty over nearly the entire sea.

This includes the construction of artificial islands and military facilities, escalating tensions with neighboring claimant states like Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia. China’s disregard for the territorial rights of other nations has led to increased