Philippine civilian group to continue Scarborough Shoal resupply mission despite talk of Chinese blockade

A civilian group from the Philippines will continue its resupply mission to Filipino fishermen in the Scarborough Shoal, even in light of US reports of China sending a huge blockade to thwart the effort, in a latest move that could signal yet another flashpoint in the disputed South China Sea.

The group’s mission on Wednesday will be its second attempt at resupplying the fishermen. Last December, the group tried to deliver supplies and Christmas gifts to Filipino troops stationed aboard the BRP Sierra Madre at Second Thomas Shoal but it returned to shore after four Chinese vessels started shadowing its main ship.

The potential Chinese blockade would be the “largest blockade I have ever tracked at Scarborough”, said former US air force official and former defence attaché Ray Powell on social media platform X, adding that it would involve four Chinese coastguard ships and dozens of large Chinese maritime military vessels.

“China seems determined to aggressively enforce its claim over the shoal,” he said.

Philippine coastguard spokesman Jay Tarriela said Powell was making a “prediction” about Chinese vessels’ movement.

“[Powell] is forecasting that the Chinese vessel to Bajo de Masinloc has the intention to block the sail,” he told reporters on Monday, explaining the voyage was not sanctioned by the government.

“Our objective is to ensure the safety of those who would be joining. We have to make sure that they would not be harassed or injured, in case they are harassed by the Chinese coastguard,” he said.

The Chinese coastguard and its maritime military are likely to “swarm the mouth of” the Scarborough Shoal and prevent the civilian convoy from entering the Philippines’ fishing grounds, said Chester Cabalza, a security analyst