New leadership?

August 6, 2024

ISLAMABAD – TRANSFORMATIVE leadership is our strong desire and an urgent need, given the doom we face due to long years of misrule. But many naïvely expect messiahs to come from the sky, as in fairytales.

New leaders don’t parachute in, but rise organically from and lead a social group opposing the old guard. They reflect the group interests (but may stitch up larger alliances to win) and views whose quality decides how well they rule. The descent of messiahs can’t be foretold via social science tools, being the stuff of fervent supplications. But such tools do show that it is not messiahs but challenger groups that bring change. They can also review if any group is strong enough to undo our old guard and rule ably.

Our old guard is an establishment-backed cabal of parasitical rural and urban upper-class elites producing low end-stuff that makes big money by breaking laws and without innovation and good management. They win power via the PPP, PML-N or the establishment to get large state loans, subsidies, etc. But the masses are given mere crumbs. So, state ills originate in market ills. They undercut four key aims — macroeconomic stability, productive growth, equity and sustainability — and often threaten default.

Which social group can challenge them? The middle class has done so for long via the Jamaat-i-Islami, MQM, PTI and even the TLP. At first glance, it seems ideally armed, with its education, global links and some money. But oddly, middle-class parties indulge in populist, inept and even corrupt politics that weakens the venal status quo without producing a new system.

Do these ills across all parties show deeper flaws in the social group? One can’t generalise. But some common traits among their