Bangladesh turmoil poses new challenge for US-India alignment in Indo-Pacific

The dramatic departure of Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina could heighten challenges for the US and India in curbing Beijing’s influence in the Indo-Pacific, US-based analysts said on Monday.

“The ouster of Hasina might pose new strategic challenges for both the US and India, because there’s a vacuum that could be filled by a more pro-China government,” said Michael Kugelman, director of the Wilson Centre’s South Asia Institute.

“That’s a problem for both the US and Indian strategic goals,” he added, noting that the exit of Hasina after 15 years in power would “provide an opportunity for the likes of more pro-China political factions to return to power”, particularly the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party.

Hasina had led Bangladesh, a nation of 170 million, since 2009. Her flight followed protests stretching over weeks concerning the allocation of civil service jobs, which eventually resulted in a crackdown by government security forces, with nearly 300 people reported to have been killed.

On Monday, after being given an ultimatum by the military to leave the country, she resigned and fled to India.

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Bangladesh prime minister resigns as renewed protests rock the country

Bangladesh is now under military control with an interim government promised soon, while thousands celebrated Hasina’s departure in the streets of its capital, Dhaka.

Despite whatever develops there, Kugelman said, Washington and New Delhi “maintain a core strategic interest in countering China” but noted they were “definitely going to need to strengthen engagements and discussions”.

While he anticipated a “recalibration” rather than a “major change”, he added that the “entire US approach to South Asia these days is framed through the Indo-Pacific