Most Taiwanese believe China unlikely to invade in coming 5 years: Poll

TAIPEI — Most Taiwanese believe China is unlikely to invade in the coming five years but do see Beijing as a serious threat to the democratic island, a poll by Taiwan's top military think tank showed on Oct 9.

Over the past five years or so, China's military has significantly ramped up its activities around Taiwan, which Beijing views as its own territory over the strong objections of the government in Taipei, and has never renounced the use of force to bring the island under its control.

The survey of around 1,200 people conducted in September by the Institute for National Defence and Security Research (INDSR) showed 61 per cent of people think it was "unlikely or very unlikely" that China would attack Taiwan in the coming five years.

"Most people do not think China's territorial ambitions will manifest themselves in the form of attacking Taiwan," said Christina Chen, an INDSR researcher.

Taiwan's people are also concerned about other Chinese threats, including military drills and propaganda campaigns, she said.

"Most people see China's territorial ambitions as a serious threat," Chen said.

The poll presents a contrast to a warning by the head of US Central Intelligence Agency, who said in 2023 that Chinese President Xi Jinping had ordered his military to be ready to conduct an invasion of Taiwan by 2027.

"That means Taiwanese people are aware of the threat but remain calm and rational with the expectations of an imminent war," the INDSR said.

More than 67 per cent of respondents to the poll said they would fight back if China attacked, but were split almost evenly on whether Taiwan's armed forces were capable of defending the island, half expressing confidence and half expressing no confidence.

Lee Kuan-chen, another