Indonesia election 2024: is Prabowo Subianto poised for a first-round win? Survey numbers suggest so but voter turnout critical

The 75 days of campaigning have been a roller-coaster ride for Prabowo and the other two pairs of candidates: former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan and his vice-presidential candidate Muhaimin Iskandar; and former Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo and partner Mahfud MD.

Posters of Prabowo and Widodo – since taken down during the quiet phase – could be seen plastered all over key provinces, all but signalling the president’s endorsement. Widodo, or Jokowi, as he is widely known, belongs to the ruling Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P).

The PDI-P is fielding its own candidates, Ganjar Pranowo and Mahfud, who have not received even a nod of support from Jokowi and have become more critical of some of his policies. Ganjar has also declared he can win without the popular president’s support.

Yet all three pairs of candidates are viewed largely as centrists and in an election where the main issues have been on the cost of living and youth employment, few areas of ideological differences have emerged. Rather, the focus has been on the power of personalities.

On paper, at least two surveys show Prabowo and Gibran as front runners, surpassing the 50 per cent of the vote needed to emerge as winners on Wednesday. If no one receives this share, the top two candidates will face off in a second round of voting on June 26.

The results released by pollster Indikator on February 9 showed Prabowo ahead at 51.8 per cent of the votes, while rivals Anies received 24.1 per cent and Ganjar obtained 19.6 per cent. The margin of error was 2.9 per cent.

Another survey by Lembaga Survei Indonesia showed Prabowo at 51.9 per cent, with Anies at 23.3 per cent and Ganjar at 20.3 per cent. The margin of error was also 2.9 per cent.

Much will depend on