Indonesia election 2024: is Prabowo Subianto a ‘wild card’ with a nationalistic agenda?

While the rival-turned-ally of Widodo has not articulated extensively on Indonesia’s economic and social blueprints, he has hinted at a more assertive foreign policy centred on the country’s rightful place on the world stage.

Prabowo is “a wild card” and the world should be prepared for “some surprises” from his government, according to Alexander R. Arifianto, a senior fellow with the Indonesia Programme at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS).

In a victory speech to supporters on Wednesday night, Prabowo said: “All survey institutions, including institutions that are on the sides of other candidate pairs, show figures that the Prabowo-Gibran pair won in one round.

“Gibran and I said, although we are grateful, we should not be arrogant. We can’t be proud. We must not be euphoric. We must remain humble, this victory must be a victory for all Indonesian people.”

This was the 72-year-old’s third campaign to lead the country after losing two bitterly contested presidential races in 2014 and 2019, both times to Widodo. Still, the president named Prabowo as his defence minister in 2020.

During his current campaign, Prabowo’s pick of Gibran as his running mate signalled to voters he would maintain popular Widodo policies if he were to clinch the top job.

With the president’s tacit support of the pair, Prabowo surged ahead of his rivals in opinion polls before the race, making him the runaway candidate to win the election.

Arya Fernandes, head of the politics department at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Jakarta, said there was a very strong chance Prabowo would continue Widodo’s policies.

“But it is also hard to say. He may go in another direction,” he added.

If confirmed, Prabowo’s