In Myanmar war, crucial window looms for junta and rebels as coming monsoons make it ‘harder and more dangerous’

In the jungles of southeastern Myanmar’s Dawna Hills, rebels from an armed ethnic group are fighting to hold back columns of reinforcements sent by the country’s ruling junta to try to reclaim Myawaddy, a critical trading outpost on the Thai border.

What happens in the next few weeks in the scramble for Myawaddy and other strategic locations in Myanmar could determine the next phase of a bloody conflict that has dragged on for more than three years and ultimately dictate the fate of the junta.

Myanmar has been plunged into chaos since a military coup in February 2021 led to the rise of an armed resistance that is now working alongside ethnic minority rebel groups, some of which have been fighting the military for decades.

The junta and the resistance have a limited window to make gains or hold their ground, as rain-laden monsoon clouds begin rolling across Myanmar around early June. Such weather particularly hampers the military that is strung out on multiple front lines, by blunting the advantage of its air power, analysts said.

In the balance lie vital trade and military outposts, including Myawaddy in the southeast, the western Rakhine region where the powerful Arakan Army has battered the junta and pockets of other provinces along the border with China and Thailand.

Some of these are areas that the junta will look to retake or hold on to before the rains arrive, even as the rebels seek to maintain their momentum, said Zachary Abuza, a professor at the US National War College and a specialist on Southeast Asia.

“There are a couple of really important strategic objectives for the military in the coming weeks,” he said, referring to key ongoing battles, including those for Myawaddy and towns in Rakhine state.

A junta spokesman