Asean must calm South China Sea waters or risk ‘Asia’s Ukraine’

Next year, Malaysia assumes chairmanship of Asean. Anwar has pledged to revitalise Asean-led forums, such as the East Asia Summit. A pivotal strategy in the preservation of Asean’s centrality is hewing to neutrality, refraining from taking sides and fostering collaboration.

A recent Financial Times article described Malaysia as the “surprise winner from US-China chip wars”, citing a surge in investment from both Western and Chinese semiconductor companies. But looming challenges threaten to disrupt Asean’s delicate balancing act.

As a crucial US ally, Japan has played a vital role in Southeast Asia’s nation-building. Through economic partnerships, Japan has helped Asean members in their modernisation and industrialisation. However, in response to China’s rise over the past decade, the Japanese have adopted a more security-focused stance within the region.

15:04

Why is the Philippines aligning itself with the US after years of close China ties under Duterte

As tensions mount, concerns arise that the South China Sea could become Asia’s Ukraine. But unlike Kyiv, which enjoys the European Union’s support, Manila will find itself without Asean backing.

Although the Philippines’ territorial disputes with China are legitimate, aligning too closely with the US carries the danger of Filipinos becoming collateral damage of great power rivalry. Fear of a nuclear conflict with Russia has kept US boots out of Ukraine. Similarly, the US is likely to avoid direct military confrontation with a nuclear-armed China. Consequently, as with the Ukrainians, the Philippines may find itself alone in the trenches battling a much larger adversary.

This is the tragic reality of the struggle for global power: the US is willing to use smaller nations as