Here's why inflation may look like it's easing but is still a huge problem
Just because the Federal Reserve is nearing its inflation goal doesn't mean the problem is solved, as the high price of goods and services across the U.S. economy continues to pose a burden for individuals, businesses and policymakers.
Recent price reports on goods and services, despite being a bit stronger than expected, indicate that the rate of inflation over the past year is getting close to the central bank's 2% target.
In fact, Goldman Sachs recently estimated that when the Bureau of Economic Analysis later this month releases its figures on the Fed's favorite price measure, the inflation rate could be close enough to get rounded down to that 2% level.
But inflation is a mosaic. It can't be captured fully by any individual yardstick, and by many metrics is still well above where most Americans, and in fact some Fed officials, feel comfortable.
Sounding like many of her colleagues, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly last Tuesday touted the easing of inflation pressures but noted that the Fed isn't declaring victory nor is it eager to rest on its laurels.
"Continued progress towards our goals is not guaranteed, so we must stay vigilant and intentional," she told a group gathered at the New York University Stern School of Business.
Daly began her talk with an anecdote of a recent encounter she had while walking near her home. A young man pushing a stroller and walking a dog called out, "President Daly, are you declaring victory?" She assured him she was not waving any banners when it comes to inflation.
But the conversation encapsulated a dilemma for the Fed: If inflation is on the run, why are interest rates still so high? Conversely, if inflation still hasn't been whipped — those who were around in the 1970s might