Why China will blockade, not invade, Taiwan

China’s October 14 “Joint Sword 2024B” military exercise, the fourth large exercise near Taiwan in the last two years, reconfirmed Beijing’s vow to use force if necessary to compel Taiwan to join the People’s Republic of China (PRC) against the will of Taiwan’s people.

PRC officials and media said the exercise was a reaction to an allegedly provocative Republic of China National Day speech given by Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te. That claim was clearly bogus.

Lai’s speech was relatively mild toward China. He even said he is comfortable with the name “Republic of China,” which annoys some of his fellow Democratic Progressive Party members who would rather call their country the “Republic of Taiwan.”

Furthermore, Beijing called a previous large exercise in May, after Lai’s inauguration, “Joint Sword 2024A,” indicating there was already a plan for another one before the end of this year. So it now appears that major PLA exercises are no longer reactions to new steps by Taiwan or the US toward de jure Taiwan independence. Rather, they follow a schedule set by Beijing.

If there is a positive glimmer from Joint Sword 2024B, it might be that the exercise seemed mostly a rehearsal for a blockade. The Chinese Coast Guard’s (CCG) participation was prominent and much hyped by PRC spokespeople and the media. The CCG would be a major player, as important as the PLA Navy, in a blockade scenario.

During the exercise, CCG vessels took up positions on all sides of the main island of Taiwan and also sailed near two small Taiwan-held islands close to the coast of mainland China.

PRC government media organ Global Times said, “This indicates that the CCG, as a maritime law enforcement force, will intensify and increase the frequency of