Don’t expect a ceasefire in Ukraine

Don’t expect a ceasefire in Ukraine,despite the buzz now rippling through European capitals and Washington. The reason is simple: there is no incentive for Russia to stop the war.

It is quite true that Vladimir Putin tabled a ceasefire suggestion – but a ceasefire would require a political settlement, in his view.

There is growing recognition in the United States and inEurope, that Ukraine can’t win its war with Russia. Even pro-Biden administration outlets such as CNBC are talking about a ceasefire.

The dilemma is this: If Ukraine cannot win a war against Russia, what should the US and NATO do next? They face a dilemma to which there is no quick or easy answer.

One option is to try and get a ceasefire arrangement, hold fake negotiations with Russia, and then resume the fighting after Ukraine trains yet another army and goes on the offensive again.

But Russia won’t buy that bucket of lard, since Western leaders, especially former German ChancellorAngela Merkel publicly said that the Normandy-group negotiations with Russia in 2014 and 2015 (leading to the Minsk I and Minsk II agreements) were a ruse, intended to buy time while NATO trained Ukrainian troops, put huge intelligence assets to work against Russia, and delivered massive armaments to Ukraine’s army, preparing to fight once they were ready.

This lesson was a hard one, especially for Vladimir Putin, who trusted Merkel. Not any more. He won’t trust any European, but especially anyone from Germany. He now understands that all the “peace initiatives” promoted by German Chancellor Olof Schulz and French President Emmanuel Macron, were intended to deceive Russia.

Dimitry Medvedev, the enfant terrible of Russia and now Deputy Chairman of the Russia’s Security Council,