China’s watching the US election – but doesn’t see much hope for better ties

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The winner of the US presidential election could have a sweeping impact on the contentious relationship between the world’s two largest economies and rival powers.

But in China, where election news is filtered through heavily censored state and social media, the focus has been more on spectacle than substance – with a sense that no matter who wins, the tensions of the US-China relationship will remain.

“To us ordinary Chinese people, whoever becomes the US president, whether it’s candidate A or candidate B, it is all the same,” Beijing resident Li Shuo told CNN in the lead-up to polls opening.

Part of the reason for that may well be a consensus in China – from policymakers down to regular citizens – that the die is cast for a US administration that wants to constrain China’s rise on the global stage, regardless of whether Vice President Kamala Harris or former president Donald Trump wins.

Trump’s last term saw the Republican slap tariffs on hundreds of billions worth of Chinese goods, launch a campaign against Chinese telecoms giant Huawei and use racist language to describe the virus that causes Covid-19, which was first identified in China.

The past four years under President Joe Biden have seen a tone shift and effort to stabilize communication. But US concern about China’s threat to its national security has only deepened, with Biden targeting Chinese tech industries with investment and export controls, as well as tariffs, while also appearing to sidestep longstanding US policy in how he has voiced support for Taiwan – a “red line” issue in the