Friday Briefing: The Global Stakes of the U.S. Election

The world doesn’t pick the U.S. president, but it will still have to live with the consequences of next week’s election. My colleague Katrin Bennhold spoke to Times correspondents about how a victory by Kamala Harris or Donald Trump could shape the world.

Keith Bradsher, Beijing bureau chief: Whoever wins will be a hawk on China. The trade-off centers on two issues: tariffs and Taiwan.

Trump has called for blanket tariffs on China’s exports, which could pose a serious threat to China’s economy. This is a country that is enormously dependent on foreign demand, especially from America. If Harris were elected, she would maintain targeted tariffs on national security grounds. Trump’s proposal is much more aggressive.

Patrick Kingsley, Jerusalem bureau chief: Israelis would vote by a large margin for Trump, polls show.

Harris would probably put more pressure on Israel to reach a cease-fire, but she would be unlikely to, say, cut off its military support. Trump would perhaps be less bothered about Israel allowing Jewish settlers back into Gaza, as part of the Israeli government would like to do. He also takes a much more aggressive line on Iran, but he can be unpredictable when it comes to issues in the Middle East.

John Eligon, Johannesburg bureau chief: There are some interesting differences in how people in Africa see Harris and Trump. Despite the fact that Trump has vulgarly dismissed African countries, some see him as a strong leader who gets things done. In many ways, he resembles a lot of autocratic African leaders.