China’s Global South exports surge in 1st 2 months

(Note: This report is a preview of the Asia Times Global Risk/Reward Monitor issue of March 13, 2024.)

China’s exports rose year-on-year by 10.3% in RMB, driven by 20% to 40% jumps in exports to India, Brazil, Indonesia, Vietnam, South Africa and other countries of the Global South. This more than compensated for sharp declines in shipments to developed markets including the US (-7%), the European Union (-6.8%), and Japan (-2.5%).

The biggest gains were registered in BRICS members India (+16%), Brazil (+37.1%), and South Africa (14.8%), as well as Vietnam (+28.4%) and Indonesia (+22.2%).

China’s exports to the Global South surpassed exports to all developed markets during late 2022 and 2023, as we have emphasized in past reports.

The preliminary January-February data show that this trend is accelerating.

Chinese investment in the Global South through the Belt and Road Initiative as well as private channels explains part of this success. Outbound Chinese investment to the Asia-Pacific reason jumped by 37% to $20 billion during 2023 – “reshaping the global economy,” as William Pesek wrote in Asia Times on March 11, 2024.

China dominates supply chains in key industries including telecommunications equipment, solar panels an, above all, electronics. “Re-shoring” and “friend-shoring” have routed increasing amounts of Chinese trade through third parties, notably Mexico, India and Vietnam.

Asia Times published the first statistical analysis of the great Sinocentric shift in supply chains in April 2023. More recent studies, by IMF economists as well as World Bank, Peterson Institute and Bank for International Settlements (BIS) researchers, confirm this result.

The Chinese shipped semi-finished goods and components to third