China’s and India’s coal habits are slowing down the green transition

Given the likelihood of an extended heatwave this summer, the Indian government has ordered all gas-based power stations to be operational from May 1 to June 30. Power demand reached a record 243 gigawatts last September, and is forecast to hit 260GW this summer.

India has about 27GW of coal-based power capacity under construction, and does not plan to close down any coal power plant until 2030. India is the world’s second largest coal producer, after China.

India’s 2023 National Electricity Plan estimates that the nation will need 866.4 million tonnes of domestic coal in 2026–2027, and that this amount will increase to 1.025 billion tonnes by 2031–2032. Meanwhile, Indian coal production is predicted to increase by 6 to 7 per cent yearly and reach about 1.5 billion tonnes in 2029-30.

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Apocalyptic scenes in India's coalfields as century-old fires rage, risking thousands of lives

Thereafter, not only did coal power project approvals shoot up, the National Energy Administration’s policy of setting strict conditions for new coal-fired power generation was also ignored.

Around the world, many nations have been phasing down coal faster. According to the World Resources Institute, Greece and Britain achieved the quickest coal power reductions over any eight-year period since 2000, followed by Denmark, Spain, Portugal, Israel, Romania, Germany, the United States and Chile. Out of these top 10 nations, only Portugal is coal-free.

Unfortunately, the UN Environment Programme’s Production Gap Report last year found that governments intend to produce around 110 per cent more fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with meeting climate goals set under the 2015 Paris agreement. Although 151 national governments have committed to