China pushes to secure Myanmar military a seat at the table as junta falters

The calculus is clear: with the junta haemorrhaging territory to a tenacious insurgency, China wants to ensure the military retains a seat at the table, no matter the outcome.

“They cannot win and indeed are losing at a rate they can never recover from,” said Zachary Abuza, a Southeast Asia expert and professor at the National War College in Washington, referring to Myanmar’s generals. “Beijing wants to ensure that the military still has a seat at the table.”

Yet Beijing’s gambit faces long odds. Ethnic armed groups and the National Unity Government (NUG), a coalition of exiled lawmakers established in the wake of the 2021 coup, are intent on the military’s “total defeat”, Abuza said – making them unlikely to participate in any junta-backed polls. And the military itself may balk at relinquishing control, despite its battlefield setbacks.

Earlier this month, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army announced it had captured the military’s key northeast command headquarters in Lashio – a major victory.

China is growing increasingly “clear-eyed” about the regime’s tenuous grip on power, according to Abuza, who said Beijing now wants to ensure the military retains some representation in a future government, to preserve a degree of predictability.

“While Beijing might privately admit the opposition could win the civil war, it scares them,” Abuza said. “They can’t say how a democratic federal government that emerged from the thorough defeat of the military would act.”

China, which views Myanmar as a crucial node in its regional ambitions, was “naive” in thinking that junta chief Min Aung Hlaing would accept elections, he added.

Jason Tower, Myanmar country director at the United States Institute of Peace think tank, said