As South China Sea stakes ratchet ever higher, Vietnam seeks out calmer waters

Bamboo, known for its ability to bend without breaking, lends its name to Vietnam’s diplomatic approach – reflecting the flexibility at the heart of the nation’s foreign policy.

“The reality is that bamboo diplomacy, with the country’s studious neutrality, has been very successful for it, so why would you change it?” said Zachary Abuza, a Southeast Asian security expert at the National War College in Washington. “I think you’re going to see very much what we’ve seen the past couple of years.”

While careful diplomacy has served Vietnam well so far, competing claims in the South China Sea threaten to increasingly strain its crucial economic and political ties with Beijing, experts warn.

“Vietnam is required to be resolute in principle to protect sovereignty, while also requiring flexibility and ingenuity in the negotiation process,” explained Le Dang Doanh, a retired senior economic adviser to five Vietnamese prime ministers.

In other words, Hanoi will continue to firmly assert its territorial claims, but do so through discrete diplomacy rather than confrontation.

This contrasts with the more assertive posture of the Philippines, noted the National War College’s Abuza.

“[Vietnam’s] strategy is largely based on condemning Chinese actions with very little in the means of raising the costs for China,” he said. “I think the Philippines understands that if no costs are imposed, why would China ever stop what they’re doing? And that’s just something the Vietnamese are not willing to do.”

At the heart of Vietnam’s complex maritime disputes with its northern neighbour are the Spratly and Paracel island chains, which alongside several oil and gas fields within the country’s internationally recognised exclusive economic zone, have been a