All the data so far is showing inflation isn't going away, and is making things tough on the Fed

The last batch of inflation news that Federal Reserve officials will see before their policy meeting next week is in, and none of it is very good.

In the aggregate, Commerce Department indexes that the Fed relies on for inflation signals showed prices continuing to climb at a rate still considerably higher than the central bank's 2% annual goal, according to separate reports this week.

Within that picture came several salient points: An abundance of money still sloshing through the financial system is giving consumers lasting buying power. In fact, shoppers are spending more than they're taking in, a situation neither sustainable nor disinflationary. Finally, consumers are dipping into savings to fund those purchases, creating a precarious scenario, if not now then down the road.

Put it all together, and it adds up to a Fed likely to be cautious and not in the mood anytime soon to start cutting interest rates.

"Just spending a lot of money is creating demand, it's creating stimulus. With unemployment under 4%, it shouldn't be that surprising that prices aren't" going down, said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities. "Spending numbers aren't going down anytime soon. So you might have a sticky inflation scenario."

Indeed, data the Bureau of Economic Analysis released Friday indicated that spending outpaced income in March, as it has in three of the past four months, while the personal savings rate plunged to 3.2%, its lowest level since October 2022.

At the same time, the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's key measure in determining inflation pressures, moved up to 2.7% in March when including all items, and held at 2.8% for the vital core measure that takes out more volatile food and