Will Japan PM Ishiba’s call for snap election backfire on him and ruling LDP?

Just hours before polling stations open across Japan, early indications suggest that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s decision to call a snap election immediately after taking leadership of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) may end up backfiring on him.

Far from benefiting from an uptick in support that is common when a new leader replaces an unpopular predecessor in Japan, the LDP is losing momentum ahead of Sunday’s election, according to the findings of several opinion polls.

A poll by the centrist Mainichi newspaper released on Thursday predicted that the LDP would struggle to win even 200 seats, well short of the 233 required for a simple majority in the 465-seat House of Representatives, with the party faring worse than in a previous poll published on October 16. The report suggested the party could win as few as 171 seats.

The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan is on course to “significantly” increase its seat count from 98 at present, while the Democratic Party for the People will improve on its current seven seats, according to the Mainichi poll.

Political analyst Toshimitsu Shigemura attributed the LDP’s waning support to a leadership that has grown distant from the public and unchecked by a strong opposition after 15 years of almost unbroken power.