Will India’s long election season help Modi ‘create history’ – or throw up a last-minute surprise?

In the country’s second-longest voting exercise, 73-year-old Modi, the star campaigner of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) party, will have time to pace himself at events held amid the blazing summer heat as well as stretch the opposition’s comparatively limited resources.

But observers believe the polls in the world’s biggest democracy are still likely to be a close fight, rather than a cakewalk, for the BJP. Despite the opposition bloc lacking a charismatic leader who can take Modi head on, analysts said their strategic alliance-building would mean the ruling party may find it tough to maintain the majority it secured in the last elections.

“Ab ke baar 400 paar”, or “We will create history with a 400-seat victory”, is the slogan upbeat BJP workers have been chanting at rallies recently, optimism fuelled by opinion polls showing Modi’s popularity remains undimmed after two consecutive five-year terms in office.

The BJP won 303 seats out of 543 in the Lok Sabha, the lower house of parliament, in the 2019 general election. This year, it aims to win 370 seats on its own and 400 together with allies under the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

“I think the target of 370 for the BJP and 400 for the NDA is a rhetorical tool for motivating its workers. It is not going to intimidate the opposition because the reality is very different,” said Uday Chandra, a professor of government at Georgetown University in Qatar.

The BJP will need to secure 272 seats to gain a clear majority, but even meeting its tally in the last election would be tough because the opposition, under the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) alliance front, have cobbled together a seat-sharing arrangement in major states to field a