Will crash trigger a crisis in Iran?

May 21, 2024

BEIJING – Editor’s Note: Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian were declared deceased on Monday following a helicopter incident on Sunday. Below are excerpts of views shared by Chinese experts on this tragic incident.

Crash has profound impact on Iran

The world was shocked after getting confirmation on Monday that Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian have died in a helicopter crash.

The crash is not necessarily related to the Israel-Palestine conflict. So far, Iran is attributing it to adverse weather conditions and mechanical failure. The sudden deaths of the president and foreign minister are significant and unexpected events for Iran. In the short term, the country will likely enter a period of national mourning, halting all formal activities, including diplomatic engagements. Iran is expected to declare a state of emergency.

Thereafter, a new presidential candidate will have to be selected. Vice-president Mohammad Mokhbar can step into Raisi’s shoes in the interim, but Raisi was seen as a successor to the Supreme Leader. Therefore, Iran must carefully consider who will take Raisi’s place in the long run. The country will need to soon decide who will run for the next presidency or the Expediency Discernment Council will choose as a candidate.

In the immediate aftermath of the deaths of Raisi and Abdollahian, it is unlikely Iran can focus on regional diplomacy. Recent de-escalation talks with the United States might be put on hold. This development can lead to a reduction in Iran’s involvement in Middle East affairs. Iran has been a key supporter of the Axis of Resistance, backing groups such as Hamas in Palestine, Hezbollah