Will China have the manpower to take Taiwan?

China is intently observing the Ukraine war, drawing lessons from the ongoing conflict pitting Russia versus the West in a proxy theater for a possible protracted war over Taiwan.

This month, Business Insider reported that China may be preparing for a drawn-out war after witnessing Russia’s protracted conflict in Ukraine, citing an International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) think tank assessment. That may mean focusing more on its reservists and reexamining operational plans for long-term industrial and logistic sustainment.

The Business Insider report notes that China’s military recruitment regulations passed in 2023 empowered China’s leaders to tweak the terms and conditions of military recruitment during the war and recall veterans to service.

It notes that heavy losses in Ukraine and reports of mistreatment of conscripts and contract soldiers have been stumbling blocks for Russian military recruitment.

Business Insider says that China’s new recruitment measures may indicate it is considering the likelihood of a similarly slow, plodding war in the Indo-Pacific as it may not achieve the short, quick, swift victory afforded by a surprise attack some analysts are predicting.

Early in the Ukraine war, Russia attempted to seize Kiev with a blitzkrieg, which failed due to the lack of surprise, Russia’s military mistakes, under-preparedness and Ukrainian resistance. Subsequently, the war has turned into a World War I-style attrition, with horrific material and human costs.

In estimating China’s possible timeframe for a Taiwan conflict, Timothy Heath and other writers note in a June 2023 RAND analysis that Taiwan is most vulnerable to defeat in the first 90 days of a Chinese invasion.

Heath and others mention that