Wider European war on the horizon

The danger of the Ukraine war spilling over to Europe is rising. The risk of a European war has never been so high.

The general consensus among military experts is that Ukraine is slowly, but inexorably, losing the war against Russia. But what does that mean?

On its face, Ukraine does not have enough soldiers to continue fighting the Russians for much longer. The burn rate for Ukraine is in the hundreds per day and battles are nowadays normally described as “meat grinders” because of the high number of casualties.

Russia has a large reserve of trained fighting men, estimated at around half a million; Ukraine has almost no reserves that have not already been deployed.

Even so, Russia’s end-game strategy is murky. Sometimes the Russians say they want to create a “buffer zone” to protect Russian territory from attack.

However, the introduction of long-range ballistic and cruise missiles rules out a buffer zone unless it reaches almost to the Dnieper River. Even then, a buffer zone does not protect Zaporizhzhia or Crimea.

NATO is now introducing F-16s to Ukraine, which reportedly will operate from Romanian airfields. They will be equipped with long-range JASSM cruise missiles and AIM-120 air-to-air missiles.

Will Russia need to destroy their Romanian air base operations or will NATO back off the idea of using them to launch F-16 sorties that, some anticipate because of location, will be aimed at hitting Crimea?

Crimea is ultra-sensitive to Russia. Recently, Ukraine has launched heavy salvos of long-range missiles at Crimean targets including airfields and harbors, especially at Sevastopol. It is believed it will soon, once again, attempt to destroy the Kerch bridge.

Most of these missiles have been supplied by NATO