Why Putin seems stronger now than a year ago

Vladimir Putin appears far stronger now than he did at any other time since Russia launched a full-scale invasion into Ukrainian territory in February 2022.

On the ground, Russian troops are pushing hard into Ukrainian territory and have captured several villages in the past two weeks alone. Plenty of other indicators show Russia’s growing strength and suggest a future in which a Ukrainian and Western defeat is becoming a more realistic possibility.

On the domestic front, over the past year, Putin has faced down a mutiny by his erstwhile ally Yevgeny Prigozhin, who was subsequently killed in a plane crash. His only other major opponent, Alexei Navalny, perished in a penal colony in Russia’s far north earlier this year.

After being re-elected to yet another term as Russian president, Putin has also consolidated his alliances with Iran and North Korea, which supply Moscow with much-needed military equipment.

This may not be the company of choice for a self-declared great power but it keeps the Russian war machine well-oiled – in sharp contrast to the problems that Ukraine has faced over the past six months with Western military aid.

At the same time, Chinese President Xi Jinping reassured Putin of his continuing support during a high-profile state visit on May 16-17, 2024.

The seemingly strong bond between Moscow and Beijing, and between Xi and Putin personally, also appears to be more sustainable than the relationships that Kiev has with Western capitals. Within the EU, Slovakia and Hungary have repeatedly set out their opposition to continued Western support for Ukraine.

Russia’s offensive in the Kharkov region, which began on May 10, 2024, has enabled Moscow to capture several villages and drive some 10 kilometers