Why Kerala isn’t buying Modi claim of ‘double-digit’ win in India election

In India’s only state where the BJP has never won a seat, demographics and history remain stumbling blocks for the PM.

Thiruvananthapuram, India – On a sweltering April afternoon, India’s junior Information Technology Minister Rajeev Chandrasekhar emerged from his air-conditioned SUV outside a prominent Hindu temple in Thiruvananthapuram, the capital of the southern Indian state of Kerala.

Wearing a traditional dhoti and a silk shawl draped over his shoulders, he stood reverently, his hands folded, before the idol of the Pazhavangadi Ganapathy Temple, the elephant-headed god who is believed to be the remover of obstacles, before proceeding to greet a crowd of about 500 people waiting for him.

Chandrasekhar, an affluent entrepreneur-turned-politician, is contesting the Thiruvananthapuram parliamentary seat in India’s mammoth general election, which started on April 19. All the 20 constituencies in Kerala will vote on Friday, April 26 – the second phase of the seven-stage election.

Given Kerala’s political landscape and history, the 59-year-old candidate fielded by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) might need divine intervention to secure a win.

Kerala is the only one of India’s major states where the BJP has never won a national seat, though it has seen a steady rise in its voter support, from 1.75 percent in 1984 to 13 percent in 2019.

During an election rally in February, Modi set higher ambitions for the party. “In the 2019 Lok Sabha [lower house of parliament] election, Kerala gave a two-digit vote share to the BJP. This time, the party would win double-digit seats from Kerala,” he said.

There is little evidence to suggest such broad support for the BJP in a state dominated by two