Why I remain hopeful despite Thailand’s fragile democracy

August 6, 2024

BANGKOK – The Thai elite, through their institutionalized counter-majoritarian mechanisms, have accused us of attempting to overthrow the state. This sweeping charge stems from our proposal to amend Thailand’s lèse-majesté law, hoping to prevent its exploitation as a tool to silence political opponents and instill fear in critics.

On August 7th, the Constitutional Court is set to rule without further investigation or seeking my appearance. A guilty verdict would lead to the dissolution of Thailand’s largest political party and potentially ban me, along with many colleagues, from politics for life.

Yet, while a cursory glance suggests Thai democracy faces a grievous threat, hampering our constituents’ aspirations for a better country, a closer inspection offers glimmers of hope.

Firstly, Thai citizens are increasingly recognizing that political uncertainty breeds economic stagnation, with judicial overreach as the likely culprit. This realization was not as prevalent before the current round of instability. Once one of Asia’s tigers with an economy dubbed “Teflon,” Thailand’s political problems did not significantly affect its economic attractiveness. However, those days are long gone, with Thailand being the worst performer among ASEAN’s six largest economies in the first quarter of 2024. Public disagreements between the embattled Prime Minister and the Governor of the Bank of Thailand over interest rates have dampened economic confidence. Thailand’s growth engines, led by tourism and private consumption, are sluggish; agricultural and industrial production and exports are contracting, while household and corporate debts continue to rise. Our economic problems are structural, attributable to a loss of