Why China is so very vexed about AUKUS

Ever since AUKUS’ public announcement three years ago, China has been staunchly opposed to the partnership. Beijing has blasted AUKUS diplomatically and mounted a concerted campaign to challenge its legality.

China has said AUKUS is “driven by Cold War thinking,” “fuelling military confrontation,” and creating “additional nuclear proliferation risks.”

The aim of AUKUS is for the Australian navy to acquire nuclear-powered submarines, with Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States also collaborating on other advanced military technologies.

As AUKUS skeptics have argued, it’s entirely possible Australia will never get its planned nuclear-powered attack submarines. Any number of factors — from the mercurial whims of a future US president to American shipbuilding constraints — could see the partnership fall over.

However, if the plan succeeds, even in a modified form, it’ll pose a serious military challenge to China. As Kevin Rudd, the former Australian prime minister and current ambassador to the US, said in recent days, it’s probably already complicating China’s future geopolitical calculations.

Here are three reasons why China finds the pact so threatening.

1. Complicating China’s nuclear strategy

AUKUS submarines will not be armed with nuclear warheads. But these boats could be used to endanger China’s sea-based nuclear weapons.

China currently operates six submarines that are both nuclear-powered and capable of launching nuclear weapons. These are based on Hainan Island, where they enjoy the protection of hardened bases. They can quickly reach the deep waters of the South China Sea to reduce the likelihood of detection.

Monitoring China’s nuclear weapons-capable submarines as they leave Hainan Island is likely