Where does a hobbled Modi go from here?

Most pundits and exit polls predicted a big win for Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in India’s massive six-week election that just came to a close.

They were wrong. Instead, many voters in key battleground states cast their ballots for opposition parties, cutting the BJP’s tally of seats in the Lok Sabha, the lower hour of parliament, from 303 to 240.

Together with their coalition partners, the BJP should retain power with a slim majority of 21 seats. Modi will serve a rare third term as India’s prime minister. But for the first time in a decade, both the prime minister and his party no longer look invincible.

So, what went wrong?

It will be a while before detailed post-election surveys are published, with robust data on why Indians voted as they did. But from what we already know, we can identify a few factors that might explain why support for the BJP has waned.

The BJP went into the election campaign claiming great successes in economic management. Under the stewardship of the Modi government, as the party’s manifesto declared, India has emerged as the fastest-growing major economy in the world. It is currently ranked number five and Modi had set the ambitious goal of rising to third by the end of the decade.

The BJP had made other big promises for a third Modi term: to make India more self-reliant and resilient to global shocks, as well as to improve its infrastructure, generate more power and attract more foreign investment in manufacturing.

Yet, what it lacked – and what may have swayed some voters – was a credible plan to boost employment and curb inflation. The BJP’s track record in both areas is not good.

India needs to create jobs for tens of millions of young and ambitious Indians entering the