What would a Trump or Harris presidency mean for Pakistan?

October 29, 2024

ISLAMABAD – As the US presidential race unfolds, Pakistan watches closely — yet the outcome is unlikely to stray from the well-worn paths of pragmatism.

The US presidential election is just days away, and many within Pakistan are keeping a close eye on the race for obvious reasons. The elections have also led to an increased debate, both within Pakistan and the American-Pakistani diaspora, about what each candidate would mean for Pakistan, especially the future of former prime minister Imran Khan, who is currently in jail.

Much of this debate, however, has failed to properly take into account the structural drivers of US policy towards Pakistan, and the limited level of interest Washington has when it comes to Pakistan and its political economy.

From Washington’s perspective, the US exit from Afghanistan and Washington’s deepening relationship with India have reduced the relative importance of Pakistan. Pakistan’s own deepening relationship with China has also led many national security actors in Washington — across both parties — to believe that it is futile to pursue a strategy that seeks to prevent Pakistan from falling into China’s geopolitical orbit.

While this is not a unanimous view, it is a perspective shared across party lines. This helps explain why, for example, Washington recently placed sanctions on companies supplying Pakistan’s ballistic missile programme.

Strategic distance

The transition in the bilateral relationship began in the Obama administration, but accelerated during the Trump presidency. The 2017 National Security Strategy offers evidence of this shift, as the document primarily focused on the fact that Washington was facing “threats from transnational terrorists and militants