What Trump’s ‘America First’ would mean for the world

Just over six months ahead of the US election, the world is starting to consider what a return to a Trump presidency might mean. While Americans might be weighing up the difference between the two candidates’ domestic policies, the rest of the globe is more interested in what foreign policy decisions they might make.

Donald Trump has already hinted at some areas he is particularly likely to address: China, NATO, Ukraine and Gaza among them. Recent statements during the campaign and leaked memos – as well as his last stint as president – signal moves that may be ahead.

“A handful of successes — and many more failures” is how Harvard professor of international affairs Stephen Walt describes Trump’s global decisions in his first term.

Joel Rubin, deputy assistant secretary of state for legislative affairs in the Obama administration, characterized Trump’s “America First” catchphrase as “America first, but really America alone”, emphasizing Trump’s isolationist credentials. But could his assertive attitudes to other nations have some positive fallout?

NATO

Trump had a mixed relationship with NATO in his first term. After declaring the organization “obsolete” in January 2017, he later backtracked on this position. However, much of the damage with America’s NATO allies had already been done, and relations remained frosty.

Trump has been hinting that if reelected he would cut US funding to NATO or indeed not stand by Article 5 of its founding treaty, which says that if one NATO member was attacked militarily, others would come to their aid. This has already caused concern across Europe.

Some European allies have taken heed of Trump’s early warnings and are now starting to increase their defense spending and, in some cases,