What to expect from Japan's Oct 27 election

TOKYO — Japan's general election on Sunday (Oct 20) will be a test for new prime minister Shigeru Ishiba, who is seeking to solidify his position atop a scandal-plagued party.

His gamble to call a snap election after winning a close-fought contest last month to lead the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) could backfire in a fluid election, however, as opinion polls show the party could cede seats to the opposition.

Here are some key factors to watch:

What's at stake?

Ishiba inherited a fractured party struggling to shake off a scandal over undocumented funds after predecessor Fumio Kishida cleared out tainted ministers, disbanded influential factions and stepped down himself, in a bid to regain public trust.

But Ishiba still appears to be fighting an uphill battle.

While some polls project the LDP and its coalition partner Komeito will maintain their majority, a weekend poll by the Asahi newspaper showed they may struggle, with the LDP potentially losing 50 of the 247 seats it now has.

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If Ishiba misses his own target of retaining a majority for the ruling coalition, questions are likely to be asked about his capability as premier at a time of economic uncertainty and increasing tension with neighbours China, Russia and North Korea.

Who are the main parties?

The LDP has ruled Japan for almost all of the post-war era, and holds a majority in the 465-seat lower house. Its long-time coalition partner is Komeito, a party backed by a large Buddhist lay group that has often lent crucial campaign support to the LDP.

Although the LDP's popularity hit a low of 25.5 per cent in June – the lowest since it regained power in 2012 — it remains the most popular party in a fragmented political landscape, with backing