Wary of Ukraine, Central Asia slowly distancing from Russia

The terrorist attack on Moscow’s Crocus City Hall in March 2024, which left 140 people dead, has sparked a crackdown on Central Asian workers living in Russia and put the relationship between the region and Russia under increasing strain.

The four suspected gunmen under arrest are all citizens of Tajikistan, a central Asian nation that was once part of the Soviet Union. Following the Crocus City attack, Russian police started rounding up and deporting workers who are originally from Tajikistan, as well as from Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

The attack, which Russia has blamed on Ukraine, also sparked massive police raids, document checks of migrants as well as harassment towards Central Asian immigrants.

There are an estimated 10 million labor migrants from Central Asia living in Russia, according to the Russian interior ministry. Central Asian migrants have seen Russia’s recent labor shortages, the result of conscription and the Ukraine war, as an opportunity to find work.

What might change?

Russia’s war in Ukraine has also been an opportunity for these republics to choose a more independent political path, while Vladimir Putin’s attention was elsewhere. A complete break with Russia is unlikely due to geographical proximity and intertwined economies. But there have been some signs that Central Asian nations are interested in making their own political decisions without constantly checking with Russia.

One was the refusal of Kazakhstan’s president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, in June 2022 to recognize Russia’s annexation of the partially occupied Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk into the Russian Federation. Tokayev also said that Kazakhstan had no intention of helping Russia to