Wall Street takes bets on which major central bank will blink first

The Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank have emerged as the two major central banks most likely to change course in the next two months, according to analysts, but in very different directions.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to cut for the first time in June, with markets narrowly pricing a 25 basis point reduction to take the Fed funds target rate to a range of 5% to 5.25%, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.

Minutes from the Fed's January meeting showed officials were wary of cutting interest rates too quickly, while expressing cautious optimism about the general downward trend on inflation.

The European Central Bank is also projected to start cutting in June, with euro zone inflation easing to 2.8% in January while economic growth remains stagnant across much of the bloc.

The Bank of England is now expected to be among the last to begin unwinding its tight monetary policy, with a slim majority of economists projecting a first cut in August, according to a recent Reuters poll.

Goldman Sachs last week pushed back its projections for rate cuts from May to June, citing several key inflation indicators that look "on the firmer side."

However, the Wall Street giant suggested the Monetary Policy Committee will then deliver five 25 basis point cuts this year, compared to a market consensus of three, taking the main Bank rate to 4% by December.

On the basis of market expectations, the first G10 central bank to cut rates will be the Swiss National Bank. The market is pricing around a 60% chance of a first 25 basis point cut in March, according to LSEG data, taking the SNB's key rate down to 1.5%.

Swiss headline inflation fell from 1.7% in December to 1.3% in January, well below consensus forecasts, while core inflation