Under Modi 3.0, India’s China focus, Pakistan pressure, regional sway to persist

The two countries have fought over the disputed region, including in several wars, since their independence in 1947.

“Ultimately Pakistan has not been able to control terrorism from its soil. The Indian government is legitimate in saying that unless it restrains [terrorist groups], we can’t talk with Pakistan,” said Pushpesh Pant, former dean of the School of International Studies at Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University.

A representative from Pakistan was invited to attend Modi’s two previous swearing-in ceremonies in 2014 and 2019.

The Indian prime minister’s Bharatiya Janata Party failed to secure an outright majority in this year’s election, forcing him to rely on other parties to stay in power. Despite this dependency on coalition partners, Modi signalled that his foreign policy approach would remain consistent with Islamabad’s exclusion for the weekend ceremony, according to Pant.

03:14

Modi’s BJP claims ‘historic’ victory in Indian election despite smaller majority

The reappointment of S Jaishankar as foreign minister on Sunday further reflects Delhi’s desire for continuity in its foreign policy, analysts say.

Pant said the BJP’s criticisms of Pakistan during the election campaign and accusations that opposition Congress leader Rahul Gandhi had received support from Islamabad signalled where Modi’s priorities lay.

Harsh Pant, an international-relations professor at King’s College London, said Delhi was unlikely to significantly change its foreign policy. He said Modi’s new government was expected to continue prioritising its “neighbourhood first” strategy by strengthening relations with countries in South Asia and beyond.

“China is here in this neighbourhood … and because of India, they [South Asian countries] drive a better