Ukraine's losses on the battlefield could make the war more dangerous for Russia

Early on in the war with Russia, Ukraine's successes on the battlefield prompted warnings from defense analysts that Moscow — with its back against the wall militarily — could lash out, using a nuclear weapon on Ukrainian soil.

Defense analysts noted that the more successes Ukraine saw, the more dangerous and unpredictable its opponent Russia could become as it sought to regain the initiative.

Two years on, the tables have turned.

Ukrainian forces appear vulnerable with their new military commander Oleksandr Syrskyi reporting a "tense" and "difficult" situation along the front line this week. This comes amid wider concerns over weapons shortages and an uncertain outlook over future Western military aid.

Russia, meanwhile, is counting gains, with the capture of the industrial city of Avdiivka in Donetsk two weeks ago and several other surrounding settlements since then.

Ironically, however, Russia's advances could also prove dangerous for Moscow as Ukraine's increasingly precarious situation could lead its military backers — eager to ensure a Russian defeat — to give Ukraine everything it needs to beat the invading forces.

With Ukraine now on the back foot, analysts say it's Russia that now faces the possibility of a desperate West, Ukraine's backer, compensating for Ukraine's vulnerability by giving it more advanced weapons systems, longer-range missiles, air defense systems and fighter jets, more quickly. That, in turn, would make the war much harder and more dangerous for Russia.

Analysts describe this situation as the "escalation paradox."

"Fierce daily combat and very high casualty rates are consistent with low escalation risk provided the front remains broadly stable — as in 2023," Christopher Granville, managing director