Ukraine needs better, smarter aid to win the war

As Ukraine approaches the second anniversary of conventional warfare and the 10th anniversary of unconventional conflict against Russia, the situation is less than ideal.

International attention, partially diverted by the war in Gaza, appears to be waning. Furthermore, domestic politics within Ukraine are threatening to undermine its war aims.

But the situation, while bleak, is not as dire as some analysts predict. In what is shaping up to be a critical year in the war, it’s essential that Ukraine’s supporters provide the right aid to the country and that Ukrainian domestic politics don’t undermine the urgent needs of its military.

Russian morale

An initial reading of Ukraine’s strategic position appears grim. There are elements of the war and political situation, however, that work in its favor.

First, the Russian economy, while on a war footing, is not as strong as it appears. The growth in the Russian economy shocked most analysts, but it was primarily due to armament production. Spending in this area is unlikely to bring long-term prosperity.

Crucially, other segments of the economy did not perform as well. Inflation is diminishing the purchasing power of the average Russian citizen.

Putin was forced to make a rare public apology as the price of eggs has risen by more than 40% in the past year. While this is an inconvenience for the middle class, it is a crisis for the poorer segments of Russian society.

Russian soldiers, furthermore, are not an inexhaustible supply. Russia has suffered significantly more casualties than Ukraine. This disparity is despite Ukraine’s material shortcomings.

The precise effect of these casualties on Russian morale is debatable. The Russian army has been relying on non-Russian minorities