Ukraine can keep on fighting Russia — but the 'victory' it wants might be out of reach

With yet another tranche of U.S. aid on its way to Ukraine, Kyiv can breathe a sigh of relief that its forces will receive new weapons supplies and equipment to keep fighting Russia's advancing forces.

But, with future aid uncertain, analysts question what "victory" Ukraine could realistically achieve against Russia — a country that has put its industries on a war footing and is able to mobilize hundreds of thousands more men to war.

While additional aid allows Ukraine to keep on fighting Russian forces in the short stretch, a "victory" in the near-term is an unlikely prospect. What's more, what "victory" looks like for Ukraine, or its allies, could be a source of friction.

"While renewed U.S. military support will likely avert a potential military defeat in 2024, the past several months have clearly demonstrated the perils of Kyiv's (over)dependence on U.S. military aid," Andrius Tursa, Central and Eastern Europe advisor at consultancy firm Teneo, said in emailed comments on Tuesday.

"There is also a lack of common vision between Kyiv and its allies about what a Ukrainian 'victory' means and what steps and resources would be needed to achieve it," he noted.

"Officially, Kyiv still aims to liberate all of the territories occupied since 2014, but few find this is realistic in the near-to-medium term."

Discussions about alternative settlement options acceptable to Kyiv might pick up later in 2024, Tursa said, particularly "as the share of the Ukrainian population that is willing to consider territorial concessions in exchange for the cessation of hostilities/peace is consistently rising."

Kyiv insists that it will liberate all of its territory that Russia has seized since 2014. That includes Crimea and four Ukrainian regions