UK view of dangerous global strategic trends

This article was originally published by Pacific Forum. It is republished with permission.

The UK recently published the seventh edition of Global Strategic Trends (GST7), an early milestone in the new government’s Strategic Defense Review. An initiative of the last Labor government, GST provides geostrategic context to inform strategic reviews conducted every four to five years.

Over its 21 years, GST has also become used around the world, with several nations now participating in the program and many more collaborating with it.

Edition seven is the most comprehensive yet, covering all global regions and shared spaces (oceans, Arctic, Antarctic, space and cyberspace), as well as emerging trends in societies, economies, the environment, technology, conflict and security.

The new edition is also far more geostrategic than its predecessors, reflecting a world that has changed significantly since Labor last came to power in 1997. GST7 has been developed with this more dangerous and uncertain future in mind.

The growth of the global population has been a major driver of that change – set to reach 10 billion by 2055, a fourfold increase since World War II. This has already driven the emergence of new economic and military powers. Yet a historic moment is also approaching whereby Russia, many countries in East Asia and much of Europe will go into population decline while Africa, along with South and Southeast Asia, may continue to grow rapidly.

The balance of economic power could, therefore, change further as new countries capitalize on youth bubbles to expand productive and service capacities. Competition among developed nations to attract workers could also increase, although rising legal and illegal migration may also