Time for Ukraine to negotiate with Russia to end war

Before the invasion, Ukraine had a generating capacity of 36 gigawatts (GW) of electricity. In late 2022, Russia began targeting Ukraine’s electricity infrastructure, resulting in the loss of half of that capacity due to occupation, destruction or damage.

Ukraine managed to restore some capacity and barely maintained the necessary 18GW to keep the lights on last winter. However, recent attacks have destroyed an additional 9GW of capacity. It is uncertain whether Ukraine will be able to endure another winter.

Despite these daunting realities, the West continues to foster false hopes of a decisive Ukrainian victory. Such optimism only serves to push Ukraine into an even weaker position. The Western narrative often fails to acknowledge the determination of the Kremlin to keep going until it achieves its goals.

Before Ukraine loses any more significant territory, it is time to concede that negotiations with Russia are the only viable step to end the war and the suffering of the Ukrainian people.

Negotiations will be painful and will require Ukraine to make significant concessions. However, this is the harsh reality of the situation. The alternative is continued warfare with diminishing resources, waning international support and increasing domestic hardship. The longer the conflict drags on, the weaker Ukraine’s negotiating position becomes.

While it is always preferable to negotiate from a position of strength, the next best option is to do so before one’s position becomes weaker. For Ukraine, this means making the painful decision to negotiate now, while it still has some leverage left, to prevent further devastation and loss.

Alexander Clackson is the founder of the Global Political Insight think tank in London, and a