The Sleepwalkers of 1914 are the Bedwetters of 2024

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German military leak: Clown show or casus belli?

Uwe Parpart unpacks revelations learned in the recent leaked teleconference between German military officials discussing potential military actions in Ukraine. The conversation, intercepted by Russian Intelligence and made public, reveals a major lack of operational security and strategic planning. Parpart’s commentary can be read in full here.

China sticks to fundamentals

David P. Goldman discusses the disappointment among equity investors in China following the National People’s Congress’s lack of significant initiatives to stimulate consumption or support the property sector. Political cohesion and long-term stability take precedence over short-term growth concerns for Beijing.

Geopolitical risk hedge: Buy USD/PLN volatility, sell USD/CZN volatility

David P. Goldman recommends a geopolitical risk hedge strategy involving currency volatility. Despite recent military developments, PLN volatility remains relatively low compared to CZK volatility, presenting an opportunity for investors to capitalize on potential fluctuations as a cost-effective hedge against escalating regional tensions.

French right is on the verge of a triumph

Diego Faßnacht discusses the strong reactions in France to French President Emmanuel Macron’s proposal of sending NATO troops to Ukraine and the current political standing of opposition leader Marine Le Pen, whose party is projected to perform strongly in the upcoming European Parliament elections, marking a rightward shift in European politics.

Rising escalation risks over Ukraine as Russia gains ground

James Davis provides a detailed update on the military situation in Ukraine, touching