The PLA’s dangerously double-edged sword

On the eve of China’s President Xi Jinping’s visit to Paris, French President Emmanuel Macron sounded a loud alarm bell when he said “Europe faces imminent danger” and that “things can fall apart very quickly.”

He is concerned about the Russian war in Ukraine, now backed by China’s industrial power. Macron advocates an EU army and doesn’t rule out a possible European direct intervention in Ukraine against Russia.

Prudence would demand to take the message seriously. If he’s wrong, little harm is done, but if he’s right, Europe could avert a historical disaster. Similar voices are also sounding in America.

On May 1, former US deputy national security advisor Matthew Pottinger said in an article that China has already crossed the red line that the US drew regarding Beijing’s support for Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Pottinger reminded that, in 2013, then-president Barack Obama drew a similar red line for Syria. Syria ignored it and Obama did not act on his warning.

This US dithering, Pottinger argued, prompted Russian President Vladimir Putin to take over Crimea in 2014. The US did not intervene at that time either.

Last week, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Beijing and said that China should cease its military support to Russia or it would risk being expelled from the SWIFT system, the US-centered payment system currently controlling about 90% of all global financial exchanges.

This could be a major blow for China, the largest commercial power in the world, hindering its much-needed trade and access to foreign exchange. The question is: will the US act, and if so, what will it do? Or will China comply, and if so, how?

It’s possible China will try to have its cake and eat it too for as long as it can, or at least