The Bank of Japan's next rate hike may come in December, not this week: CNBC survey

Economists, FX strategists and Japan-focused fund managers are split over the timing of the Bank of Japan's next interest rate hike, according to a new CNBC International survey.

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said last month that the central bank would continue to raise interest rates if inflation stayed on course, while also closely monitoring financial market conditions. 

There is consensus among the 32 analysts polled by CNBC that there would be no change at this week's BOJ meeting, which concludes Friday. However, the outlook for the October and December meetings is much less certain. CNBC conducted its survey from Sept. 2-13.

The early August volatility spike, the ruling LDP leadership contest and desire for further evidence of wage-price dynamics were commonly cited reasons among analysts as to why a September rate change is extremely unlikely.

"We think the central bank will be keen to move gradually and allow the impact of the July rate hike to be fully felt," said Jessica Hinds, director in Fitch Ratings' economics team.

CNBC's survey found 18.75% of respondents expect a hike for the October meeting, while another 25% said a hike was possible.

About 25% of analysts said a December hike was likely, while 31.25% said it was a "live meeting" meaning the BOJ could adjust monetary policy depending on economic data.

Gregor Hirt, global chief investment officer for multi asset at Allianz Global Investors, sees a strong chance of one hike this year, most likely in October.

"With solid inflation and wage data, alongside resilient growth, the BOJ may want to get one more hike in while the global repricing of yield curves supports Japanese bonds, helping to ease the impact of any policy adjustments and give the Japanese economy time to