Testing America’s political stability

October 28, 2024

MANILA – If the United States can hold peaceful, orderly elections on Nov. 5 and inaugurate a new president without prolonged legal or political battles, it will mark a major success for American democratic institutions. Such an outcome would send a powerful message to the world: that free elections, even in highly polarized climates, remain a credible source of political legitimacy. Political legitimacy is the foundation of strong institutions, and strong institutions are the barriers that prevent autocrats from hijacking democracy.

Unfortunately, this scenario seems increasingly uncertain as America gears up for what could be its most consequential presidential race in history. The final national poll from The New York Times and Siena College shows Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump tied at 48 percent of the popular vote. This seems to leave just 4 percent of American voters with the power to decide the next president.

The US electoral system is complex. The presidency isn’t awarded to the candidate with the most popular votes nationwide but to the one who secures the majority of the Electoral College votes from the 50 states. In most states, the candidate who wins the popular vote claims all that state’s electoral votes. This winner-take-all rule applies everywhere except in Maine and Nebraska, where electoral votes are partly distributed based on congressional district results.

Historically, “blue” states vote Democratic, while “red” states tend to go Republican. However, about six or seven states, known as “battleground” or “swing” states, can vote either way, ultimately determining the election outcome. Key among these are states with large electoral votes: