Talks on China-Japan-South Korea FTA merely ‘symbolic’ given US and public opposition

The FTA might come to fruition if its scope covers less sensitive sectors such as services, the analysts say.

They pledged to aim for an agreement that is “free, fair, comprehensive, high-quality, and mutually beneficial”, according to the summit’s joint declaration.

While negotiation for the trilateral FTA began in 2012, talks have stalled after the 16th round held in November 2019.

On May 30, China’s Ministry of Commerce said the FTA would further open markets, reduce trade barriers and increase investment due to the three countries’ strong industrial links and economic complementarity.

Jayant Menon, a senior fellow at the Singapore-based ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, said if negotiations for the FTA were already difficult, escalating tensions between the United States and China in recent years would likely lead to the “death knell” for the pact.

“The prospects for concluding this FTA have been further reduced by the entry into force of the RCEP, which includes all three countries and more. There is little political appetite for it outside China and the economic rationale for it is diminishing as RCEP progresses,” Menon said.

Pratnashree Basu, an Indo-Pacific associate fellow at the Strategic Studies Programme and Centre for New Economic Diplomacy at the India-based Observer Research Foundation, said while there was a degree of political will to push for the FTA, the tense geopolitical environment meant that negotiations for a deal would be “protracted”.

An FTA typically takes several years to negotiate, especially when large economies with significant existing trade volumes and complex economic relationships are involved, according to Basu.

The GDP of China, Japan and South Korea totalled US$17.52 trillion, US$5.31 trillion