Taiwan spending and betting big on home-built submarines

Taiwan’s bold expansion of its submarine fleet marks a high-stakes gamble to counter China’s growing military threat despite significant financial, logistical and geopolitical challenges.

This month, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported that Taiwan has set aside a substantial budget to construct seven additional submarines by 2038 to deter potential aggression from China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

SCMP mentions that the decision, approved by the cabinet and awaiting legislative review, has sparked debate among analysts over its timing and fiscal prudence, given that the prototype submarine, Hai Kun, is still undergoing testing.

The report says that the project’s hefty price tag of NTD 284 billion (US$8.88 billion) contrasts with the prototype’s cost of NTD 26 billion ($806 million), raising questions about the rush to expand the fleet without finalized sea trial results.

The SCMP report says critics argue for fiscal discipline and caution against premature budget allocation. At the same time, it mentions that proponents emphasize the strategic need for advanced submarines to ensure Taiwan’s security and counter PLA threats.

While Taiwan’s ambitious submarine program stirs fiscal prudence debates, experts underscore its critical role in disrupting PLA operations and bolstering Taiwan’s asymmetric defense strategy.

Mark Cancian and other writers mention in a January 2023 report for the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) think tank that submarines could penetrate China’s defensive zones and target Chinese amphibious ships and supply convoys, disrupting PLA logistics and reducing the effectiveness of any invasion force.

Cancian and others say that submarines operating in the confined and